When I first started playing fantasy football, I was completely frustrated by defensive scoring. Predicting who was going to return interceptions for touchdowns seemed like too daunting a task.
Even worse, it seemed like every time I changed defenses, the guys I had been starting all year would finally score. I felt cursed, and I threw up my hands in exasperation. I decided I would just start the same team every week and hope for the best. This was not the best strategy.
I’ve matured as an owner and come to terms with the random nature of defensive scoring. I now play this part of the game very proactively. Like a card-counting blackjack player, I bet when the odds are in my favor and sit out when they are not.
Last season, I started 10 different defenses in 14 weeks. That combination of defenses was the NFL's third-highest-scoring defense in terms of fantasy points. I picked up a 50 to 80-point advantage over most of my league just by taking a few minutes each week to look for turnovers.
Below, I detail my four-part approach to choosing a defense each week. Please don't tell anyone in my league about it! At the bottom of the page, there is a chart showing the expected turnover leaders through Week Five.
Part One: Fumbles
While fumbles are mostly random, some people do have butterfingers. Remember Tiki Barber before he got the Kung–Fu ball grip?
Last year, in the NFL, there were 800 fumbles, 384 of which were recovered by the defense. Over the long hall, if a player puts the ball on the turf, it is 48 percent likely to be recovered by the defense.
As fans and fantasy owners, we tend to focus too much on fumbles lost, which is more a matter of luck. The “no harm, no foul” rule doesn’t apply when it’s your job to predict future harmful fouls. Every ball on the grass is worth 48 percent of a turnover in my eyes.
The logic here is simple: more balls on the ground equal more turnovers, and more turnovers equals more fantasy points for you.
Part Two: Interceptions
An interception is an interception, so I won’t spend much time here. Obviously, if a team is throwing a lot of picks, starting their opponent as your defense is going to lead to more chances for defensive touchdowns.
More defensive touchdowns equals more fantasy points for you.
Part Three: Sacks
Sacks are a very important part of the equation. Sacks can often lead to fumbles, and the threat of sacks can often lead to interceptions. Lots of times balls get intercepted because the quarterback’s throwing motion was disrupted by a pass rusher.
Ideally, you should look for a team that is getting more sacks than the league average per game and start them against a team that is allowing more sacks than the league average per game. If both teams play like they have been, you should pick up some points.
You may not always get the ideal matchup, but this should be a major factor, as you’re considering which defense to start each week.
Part Four: Inexperienced Quarterbacks
Quarterbacks touch the ball on every offensive play, outside of Miami. Wildcat offense notwithstanding, every play begins with the center snapping the ball to the quarterback. There’s one chance for a fumble. Next the quarterback either hands the ball to a running back, another fumble opportunity, or passes the ball, creating a chance for an interception.
Inexperienced quarterbacks are more likely to foul up these processes than their veteran counterparts. This problem is exacerbated if the new quarterback hasn’t taken many reps with the first-team offense before he starts.
Think Tyler Thigpen.
Quarterbacks making their first NFL start due to an injury to the starter are much more likely to turn the ball over—and at a far higher rate, to boot—than quarterbacks who have practiced with the starters since July.
Going back to the blackjack analogy, this is a deck with lots of face cards left in it—you want to increase your wager in these situations.
It is a sin to sit by idly and allow these defensive points go unclaimed. It could be the difference between winning and losing.
Conclusions
While you can’t predict exactly when turnovers are going to occur, you do know some things about how they occur. You should use that information to your advantage.
Quarterbacks in distress, whether through defensive pressure or inexperience, make bad decisions with the football and create defensive scoring opportunities.
If you take a look inside the numbers each week, you’ll be able to see where these mistakes are more likely to happen and position your team to take advantage of the situation.
Data: Total Fumbles + Interceptions Leaders for Week Five:
Team FUM LST INT TOT
1. Cincinnati Bengals 9 4 7 16
2. Kansas City Chiefs 7 2 8 15
3. Dallas Cowboys 9 3 5 14
4. Houston Texans 8 3 6 14
5. San Francisco 49ers 8 6 6 14
6. Detroit Lions 6 1 7 13
Feel free to post any questions you have about specific situations. I'll answer questions once a day through Saturday. Thanks for reading.
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