As fantasy football owners it’s easy to assume that points equal wins. After all, if you score more than your opponent in any given week, you win.
But the manner in which your points are scored is too important to ignore. Ever scored the most points in your fantasy league four times in a year only to finish 6-8 and out of the playoffs? Unless your league pays a hefty bounty for high score of the week, these seasons end in frustration.
Conventional fantasy football wisdom tells us to draft quarterbacks and wide receivers from the same team. These correlation bets only increase the volatility of our point totals…so we look great some weeks, and horrible others. Remember we’re trying to win games not bragging rights.
What if we thought about fantasy football in terms of red zone chances? Red zone chances are much easier to predict than individual player points.
Therefore if we collect the quarterback, short yardage back, and kicker from a team we expect to be in the red zone frequently we can provide ourselves with a regular stream of fantasy points.
This regularity will help us win close games and turn our 6-8 season into an 8-6 season, and giving us that date for week fifteen we all crave.
On each red zone chance only a few things can happen: Passing Touchdowns, Rushing Touchdowns, Field Goals, and Non-Scores.
If we have our players distributed properly every time our real team enters the red zone, our fantasy team will be a favorite to come away with points. These points add up.
Therefore collecting players from teams who will outperform at getting to the red zone should lead to fantasy wins.
If we focus our attention on a thing we can predict (i.e. the number of possessions in a game, and red zone opportunities per possession.) we’ll be more likely to structure our teams to score slightly above the league average every week.
If most other team's scores are wildly varying this strategy should translate into more wins..
Winning fantasy games is what you drafted your team to do. Isn’t it?
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