It's Good! Kicking Up More Points

A fantasy point is a fantasy point. It doesn't matter if you get them from your quarterback, running back, or kicker, they all count as one.

I always draft a kicker in either the last or second to last round in my fantasy league, just as most experts advise. However, early in the season I re-evaluate my kicker pick. Pre-draft projections are not as important as regular season results.

By now it's clear which offenses are going to score points, but many fantasy owners are still anchored to their pre-draft assumptions. With a wise move at this point in the season, you can easily capture a 20 - 30 point advantage over the rest of your league.

In this article I show you how to pick a kicker, and talk about some kickers who's ownership percentage no longer reflects their expected results.

How To Pick A Kicker:

When picking a kicker it's important first to consider the job they do: kicking. Josh Brown makes the occasional tackle, but the rest of the league just kicks.

Since kickers can't do anything to change the number of times their team gets into the red-zone, when you're drafting a kicker, you're really drafting a piece of an offense.

It's like buying stock in the total number of points the team is going to score in a season. When the offense produces more points the kicker scores more points...your stock goes up.

Before the season started, people made estimations about total points scored for the season. The New England Patriots, for instance, were expected to score a lot of points.

Now that we know Tom Brady isn't coming back this year, we must adjust our assumptions to reflect this new information. Stephen Gostkowski is going to score far fewer points this year than we previously expected through no fault of his own. His team changed around him, and with it his probability of scoring.

When you're picking a kicker you want to buy stock in a team that is going to score lots of points. The Cowboys, Broncos, Chargers, Cardinals, and Saints right now are the league's five highest scoring offenses.

Whomever has the kicking job on these teams is likely to score more points than the rest of the league.

Look for high powered offenses and teams playing well. This is fertile ground for kicking points.

Getting It Wrong:

Matt Prater, one of the highest scoring kicker in football, is only owned in 76% of leagues on a popular fantasy site. The leader at every other position has an ownership percentage in the high 90's. What gives? Why aren't more high scoring kickers owned?

Because their triumphs almost never make the highlight film, kicker's achievements are largely ignored by the fantasy football community.

Neil Rackers plays for the Arizona Cardinals, one of the highest scoring teams in the NFL. He is owned in 57% of leagues. Unnoticed.

Shaun Suisham is owned in 19% of leagues. The Redskins just came off a four game winning streak and before this week had been playing excellent football. Nobody cares.

On the other hand plenty of the wrong kickers are heavily owned. Shayne Graham is owned in 57% of leagues. I guess because the Bengals were a good team a few years back owners are betting on the resurgence.

In 59% of leagues, somebody still has Stephen Gostowski (NE). Did these owners somehow missed the Tom Brady news? Can you see the importance of changing your assumptions?

What To Do:

Player values change every day, and if you don't react to even the most dramatic changes rest assured your opponents will.

Ask yourself a question: what teams do you think are going to score this season? Then choose your kicker accordingly. Most importantly be willing to change your opinion as new information comes to light.

Making good mid-season adjustments improves your probability of victory.